Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings Ratio; assesses market valuation.The CAPE ratio, or Shiller PE ratio, is a valuation measure applied to broad equity indices. It uses inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years, which helps indicate the likelihood of future market returns. A high CAPE value suggests that equities may be overvalued and could predict lower returns in the future.
Current federal interest rate, reflects cost of borrowing.Interest rates, typically set by the central bank, influence borrowing costs for individuals and businesses. Higher rates can slow economic growth by making borrowing more expensive, which can lead to a recession. Conversely, lower rates stimulate growth by encouraging spending and investment.
Rate of price increases, indicating inflationary trends.The inflation rate measures the rate at which the general price level for goods and services is rising. High inflation can erode purchasing power and lead to tighter monetary policy, which can, in turn, increase the risk of a recession. Monitoring inflation helps gauge economic stability and price stability.
S&P 500 index adjusted for inflation, key economic indicator.The inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index provides a view of the stock market’s real returns, factoring out inflation. When adjusted, it offers a more accurate picture of economic strength, useful in identifying periods of real growth or recession in the economy.
Wilshire 5000, broad measure of US equity market performance.The Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index is a market-capitalization-weighted index of the market value of all stocks actively traded in the United States. It serves as a comprehensive measure of the performance of the U.S. equity market, reflecting trends in economic growth and investor sentiment.
Gross Domestic Product, measuring economic growth.GDP represents the total monetary value of all goods and services produced over a specific time period. It is used as an economic health indicator. When GDP growth slows or contracts, it may signal a recession, while rapid growth may indicate economic expansion.